Following two consecutive years of stagnation, low–voltage VFD market poised for growth in 2014

连续两年停滞后，低压变频器市场在2014年蓄势待发

Since 2011, revenues for VFDs have maintained flat growth (0.3% CAGR from 2011 to 2013), as European countries have been cautious to invest and export demand from Asia Pacific has provided minimal incentives to invest. By contrast, unit shipments have increased slightly over the same time frame (2.6% CAGR), as lower-priced VFD sales have accelerated marginally during this same period. Although market revenues did not significantly increase in 2013, early indications for 2014 suggest that investment sentiment has improved and is expected to lead to accelerated growth in upcoming years.

2011年以来，变频器营收一直保持增长持平（2011至2013年0.3％的复合年增长率），因为欧洲国家投资谨慎，来自亚太地区的出口需求带来一些小的投资激励。相比之下，在同一时期，单位出货量略有增加（2.6％的复合年增长率），因为价格较低的变频器销量同期稍微加速。虽然2013年市场收入并没有显著增加，但一些早期指标表明，2014年的投资气氛有所改善，预计将在未来几年加速增长。

According to IHS analyst Kevin Schiller: “After several years of a repressed economic environment, Europe’s process markets will recover towards the end of 2014. In addition, the upcoming Energy-related Products Directive deadline in 2015 will spur additional growth in the European variable frequency drives market.” As process markets improve in Europe, growth will recover in VFD markets, which will in turn lead to a recovery in premium drives sales. With the exception of Japan, economic activity is expected to accelerate for all major countries through 2016. IHS projects that gradual increases in global economic activity will pick up, to 2.9% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015.

IHS公司的分析师Kevin Schiller表示：“经过几年压抑的经济环境之后，欧洲的过程市场将在2014年底复苏。此外，2015年即将到来的能源相关产品指引期限，将推动欧洲变频器市场的额外增长。”随着欧洲过程市场在改善，变频器市场将恢复增长，这将反过来推动高端驱动器销售的复苏。除了日本，预计到2016年，其他主要国家的经济行为都将加速推进。IHS预测，全球经济活动将逐步提升，2014年和2015年将分别增长2.9％和3.5％。

One factor that indicates high potential for LV drives is the increasing of inventories by machine builder sectors. While revenues allocated to discrete sectors have grown recently, process market revenues have remained subdued. The success of discrete sectors influences the compact and standard drives market more so than the premium drives market because of their concentration within those sectors. While approximately 70% of compact and standard drive revenues are from machine-building sectors, these sectors only account for approximately half of premium drive revenues. As compact and standard drives have a lower average selling price (ASP) than premium drives, this helps to explain the recent dichotomy between unit shipment growth and revenue growth.

显示低压变频器潜力较大的一个因素是机器制造商行业的库存增加。虽然离散行业的营收近来有所增长，但过程市场的收入仍然疲弱。离散行业的成功对紧凑型和标准驱动器市场的影响比高端驱动器市场更甚，因为他们主要集中于这些行业。紧凑型和标准型驱动器收入约70％是来自机械制造行业，但这些行业只占到高端驱动大约一半的营收。因为紧凑型和标准驱动器相比高端驱动器具有更低的平均销售价格，这有助于解释单位出货量增长和收入增长之间最近的二分法。

Since the 2009 global market contraction, machine builders, distributors, and system integrators have become more cautious about their level of stock of machinery. However, recent reports from suppliers have noted that sales to these customers have grown more quickly than process markets. Although end-user sectors have lagged behind in growth, investment sentiment has improved as customers become less wary of another market contraction.

由于2009年全球市场萎缩，机器制造商、分销商和系统集成商对其机械库存情况更为谨慎。但来自供应商最近的报告指出，面向这些客户的销售比过程市场增长更快。尽管终端用户行业增长滞后，但投资气氛有所改善，因为客户对另一个市场萎缩的担忧降低了。

Quarterly sales data verify expectations for increased market potential. While quarterly growth contracted in the first quarter of 2014 (as predicted), the market is stronger than it was in the first quarter of 2013 in every region included in the IHS Quarterly AC Drives Tracker. Globally, the market in the first quarter of 2014 is over 2% higher than it was in the first quarter of 2013. As a stronger recovery in EMEA is not expected until later in 2014, this early growth has reinforced anecdotal evidence that discrete markets are preparing for expected increased demand.

季度销售数据验证了更大市场潜力的预计。尽管2014年第一季度（为预测值）的季度增长有所收缩，但市场仍然强于“IHS季度交流变频器跟踪报告”所包括地区的2013年第一季度。从全球来看，2014年第一季度市场增长比2013年第一季高2％以上。欧洲、中东及非洲市场的强劲复苏预计要到2014年后半年，这个前期增长也进一步表明了传闻证据，那就是离散市场对预期的增长需求，正在做准备。