Global Manufacturing Compound Annual Growth Rate of 2.7% (2023-28)
2023-2028年，全球制造业复合年增长率为2.7%

Despite a tough year ahead for most regions and territories in 2024, growth will return in 2025 for many sectors. In line with Interact Analysis’ previous update to its Manufacturing Industry Output (MIO) Tracker, the company’s latest forecasts show the lowest point in the manufacturing cycle for many regions and sectors is expected to occur this year. Despite this, key regions such as the US and Germany will shrink half as much in 2024 as they did at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast with most industry sectors, the semiconductor segment is expected to have a much better 2024, following a difficult year in 2023.

尽管2024年大多数地区和领地将面临艰难的一年，但许多行业将在2025年恢复增长。根据Interact Analysis此前对制造业产出（MIO）追踪数据的更新，该公司的最新预测显示，许多地区和行业的制造业周期最低点预计将出现在今年。尽管如此，到2024年，美国和德国等关键地区的萎缩幅度将是新冠疫情最严重时期的一半。与大多数行业相比，半导体行业在经历了2023年的艰难一年后，预计将在2024年有更好的表现。

One of the most significant adjustments Interact Analysis has made to its long-term outlook is the prediction of slower growth for the machinery segment over the next 5 years due to a weak 2023, a contraction in 2024, and concerns regarding 2025. However, the expected CAGR for APAC manufacturing between 2023 and 2028 is expected to be positive at 2.9%, followed by the US (2.4%) and Europe (2.4%).

Interact Analysis对其长期前景做出的最重大调整之一是，由于2023年疲软、2024年萎缩以及对2025年的担忧，预计未来5年机械行业的增长将放缓。然而，预计2023年至2028年亚太地区制造业的复合年增长率将为2.9%，其次是美国（2.4%）和欧洲（2.4%）。

In the US, the Federal Reserve shows no signs of cutting interest rates yet, suggesting the region will suffer a difficult 2024, with negative growth potentially continuing into 2025. The US economy is expected to shrink by 2.2% in 2024, before bouncing back to 3.8% In 2025, and there does not appear to be a huge demand or supply-side problem, so the downturn is not likely to be as severe as during the pandemic.

在美国，美联储尚未显示出降息的迹象，这表明该地区将经历艰难的2024年，负增长可能会持续到2025年。美国经济预计将在2024年萎缩2.2%，然后在2025年反弹至3.8%，而且似乎不存在巨大的需求或供应方面的问题，因此经济低迷不太可能像疫情期间那样严重。

In Europe, the economic outlook for 2024 looks just as bleak. Italy is in one of the worst positions, with machinery production expected to shrink by 3.7% in 2024 and the manufacturing sector to contract by 1.5%. As a result of falling wage increases and decreasing employment levels, the Italian economy is set to struggle. Interact Analysis is also predicting a manufacturing decline of -0.8% for Germany in 2024 and -1.3% for France. The UK is predicted to continue struggling while it navigates the challenges associated with a post-Brexit economy. Interact Analysis’ prediction for the UK’s manufacturing sector outlook overall in 2024 is -0.4% and -3.3% for machinery.

至于欧洲，2024年的经济前景同样黯淡。意大利处于最糟糕的境地之一，预计2024年机械生产将萎缩3.7%，制造业将萎缩1.5%。由于工资涨幅下降和就业水平下降，意大利经济将陷入困境。Interact Analysis还预测，2024年德国制造业将下降0.8%，法国将下降1.3%。预计英国将继续艰难应对后英国退出欧盟时代的经济挑战。Interact Analysis对2024年英国制造业整体前景的预测为-0.4%，机械行业为-3.3%。

Adrian Lloyd, CEO at Interact Analysis comments, “While everything seems so doom and gloom, we are seeing positive order books for semiconductor machinery. This sector is in an odd position currently; as demand for semiconductor machinery increases, the production of semiconductors themselves has all but collapsed. North America’s order growth for semiconductor machinery has reached over 50% - likely due to the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Act - while Europe and Taiwan also continue to place orders.

Interact Analysis首席执行官Adrian Lloyd评论说:“尽管一切似乎都很悲观，但我们看到了半导体机械的积极订单。该行业目前处于一个奇怪的位置；随着对半导体机械需求的增加，半导体本身的生产几乎已经崩溃。北美的半导体机械订单增长已经超过50%，这可能是由于芯片和通货膨胀削减法案的原因，而欧洲和台湾也在继续下订单。

“Although 2024 will be a tough year for the global manufacturing industry, our predictions suggest that the severity of the growth trough will be mild for most regions.”

“虽然2024年对全球制造业来说将是艰难的一年，但我们的预测表明，对大多数地区来说，增长低谷的严重程度将是温和的。”